Here is my article that ran in The News Journal on October 20.
When the United States Fish and Wildlife Service issued this year’s Waterfowl Population Status report in July, I am sure many of you began counting down the days to Oct. 21, the opening day of Delaware’s regular duck season.
Waterfowl survey results and estimates presented in the report show strong breeding populations for multiple duck and goose species throughout much of the United States and Canada, which could equate to strong migrating waterfowl numbers in the Atlantic Flyway.
According to the surveys conducted by the Fish and Wildlife Service, breeding duck conditions were excellent in much of the eastern survey area of eastern Canada, Maine, and northern New York. Most of the area received normal to above-normal precipitation resulting in full rivers, streams, ponds, lakes, bogs, and other wetlands suitable for breeding, nesting, and brood-rearing waterfowl.
Although duck estimates in the eastern area are not at record highs like in the U.S. and Canadian prairie regions (the overall prairie population estimate is 45.6 million birds), the duck numbers remain strong. Population estimates for mallards, mergansers, ring-necks,
green-winged teal, and goldeneyes remain similar to last year’s counts and close to their long-term averages. Black duck estimates were also similar to last year’s counts, but unfortunately their population numbers still trend about 13 percent below their long-term average.
Snow and ice melt occurred slightly later than normal in some goose-nesting areas, so survey results for Canada geese show that most of the United States will see average or slightly below average numbers of migrating geese this fall. However, the number of Canada geese in the Atlantic Flyway may buck the trend. The 2011 Atlantic Population surveys yielded an estimated 194,000 breeding pairs of Canada geese (27 percent higher than 2010) and 919,300 total Canada geese (18 percent higher than 2010) in the survey area, which may result in Atlantic Flyway goose hunters seeing increased action.
Although some homeowners, farmers, golf course managers, and park rangers may not believe it, the population of resident Canada geese in the Atlantic Flyway (geese that inhabit the southern Canadian provinces and the U.S. states that compose the Atlantic Flyway) has declined by an average of 2 percent annually since 2003. This spring’s weather in the Atlantic Flyway was generally cooler and wetter than average, so the decline in resident Canada geese populations may continue.
The waterfowl breeding population habitat surveys are conducted by various federal, state, and provincial agencies, and they cover more than two million square miles of North American waterfowl breeding areas. Since aerial and ground counts are affected by such factors as weather conditions and area accessibility, it is important to remember that the population statistics and trends presented are estimates based on counts, past data, and various calculation models.
While there is no foolproof method of predicting exactly how waterfowl population estimates will affect hunting, a little homework never hurts. Armed with the data presented in this years’ Waterfowl Population Status report, I am confident that successful duck and goose harvests await many hunters in our region.